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Tell me, what's wrong with my matches.. 8 draws in league competition so far, and I really don't know why I can't win.

http://en.strikermanager.com/partido.php?id=19431398&accion=simul

after leading 1-4.. why is sim so stupid that I can't win.. why????????

any gimme a hand on this.. thanks.
26/08/2015 13:46
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Firstly, this is not the sim deciding why you can't win. If anything it'd be the match engine (the sim merely simulates what it's told to reproduce after the match engine has crunched all the numbers).

Also, it appears you've got a bit of a Mourinho approach to statistics in terms of being the "King of Draws".
I had a look at all the tables from Div 1-3, 21 groups, and found there to be...21 teams with as many or more draws as you have. So, there really is one per group. If anything, I'm actually surprised we don't see more draws in SM. Looking at real football tables, last season in the EPL, 6 teams finished roughly 1/3 or more of their games in a draw using similar parameters. In La Liga, 6 teams drew roughly 1/3 or more of their games, and in Germany 7 teams. So, draws are supposed to be a likely outcome for some teams - SM just seems to throw up more victories and losses when a game perhaps might have been drawn.

So, to quote someone else with a famously pessimistic view on statistics, "Why Always Me"?

Well, the game today saw 9th take on 11th, so a draw was always on the cards in such a mid-table clash. Also, the game finished with pretty much even shots on goal for both teams, so a draw doesn't look unusual from that perspective either. Your opponent may equally wonder why he deserved to be 4-1 down when he perhaps had been equal to the challenge. The games are settled by the score at the end, rather than at any statistically convenient point before then, and your opponent's substitution was a great move today, and not being able to cope with it hurt you. There's not much need for further analysis of this game, I don't think.

As for the other 7 draws this season - could it be your tactics, your players, or just luck (or lack of it).

Well, your squad looks more or less average for a Div 3 side. Weak defense, maybe, but made up for by a strong attack. I'd say this is pretty much in keeping with many close results.

I then had a look at when you concede goals, thinking maybe you switch off or burn out too early late in the game. What I found is that when you have drawn a game this season (before today) you concede 1/3 of your goals in the last 30mins. So, 1/3 of the goals in 1/3 of the time. However, I checked the games you lost by a 1-goal margin and found you conceded half of your goals after 60mins. There may be something in here, either to do with effort management of player positioning/marking style which causes this very slight lapse in concentration late on, but if you do make changes keep in mind the stats show only a very slight sign of this, and the number of 1-goal margin losses is not significant enough from which to make drastic changes, in my opinion.

Remember, it's usually a lot easier to remember unfavorable results compared to favorable ones. You have won as many games by a 1-goal margin as you have lost. Often, we don't tend to question a slim victory or fortunate draw, but often bemoan a slim defeat or unfortunate draw. Why would we, we deserved the good result, right? But the bad one? Someone else must be to blame for that. The reality is that you've also come back to draw other games, too.

However, if I were to prescribe some changes under the bonnet, I'd suggest dropping your players back and playing more zonal if you're far ahead (regardless of the game time). Couple this with a better RDF and LDF and I think you'll be well into the top half next season.

Just don't do anything too drastic - your results are neither that fortunate nor unfortunate from where I'm looking, and your players don't seem to be sufficiently good to warrant more or sufficiently poor to warrant less than you've achieved. The flipside to that last point is that, in my opinion, your tactics are up to the quality of your players in relation to the division, which is an altogether nicer thing to know.

Luck, then? Well, given what I've said already, I think a mid-table side with players at about the level Div 3 requires and tactics to match, conceding goals at a more or less consistent rate can expect quite a few draws.

If it's any consolation, you've played really well recently, and you know you're not too many tweaks from turning those level scorelines into more consistent 1-goal victories.

I play you on Monday, so ignore all this until Tuesday

Edited by sicox86 27-08-2015 07:17
26/08/2015 18:38
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another draw, sicox 28/08/2015 13:23
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Me too! 28/08/2015 13:25
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with my current form, I should get a draw against you too..lol 28/08/2015 13:40
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Form I'm in, you might win 28/08/2015 14:00
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you boys want to win? Shoot me a friendly. 28/08/2015 14:22
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Just passing by, I can see it's boss to boss things. I hail o bosses 28/08/2015 18:14
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Horlarlaycon said:
Just passing by, I can see it's boss to boss things. I hail o bosses


No boss here, we are all mates!!!
30/08/2015 21:06
  🦊3773™ - Div2/Gr1
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21587 msgs.
Golden Ball
mr waz said:
Tell me, what's wrong with my matches.. 8 draws in league competition so far, and I really don't know why I can't win.

http://en.strikermanager.com/partido.php?id=19431398&accion=simul

after leading 1-4.. why is sim so stupid that I can't win.. why????????

any gimme a hand on this.. thanks.


9 draws now, indeed you deserve a crown!
31/08/2015 21:20
  🦊3773™ - Div2/Gr1
     
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