hewhoamareismyself said:
2 bots/known inactives (Farewell Kashulo [NorthAfriquia]) currently in division 3, or at least that I know of, not to mention one might've already been replaced. 1280 teams in division 4. Assuming that each team has an equal shot, that'd give you a 1 in 640 shot, depending on when these offers come out, and by the fact that you are under average in one of the groups that puts you at an even worse probability. (this is of course assuming that every team used their 1st team in their 2nd cup match, actual data may be a bit under average in all groups, yet interestingly enough, Your team is so close to the average that you would actually be about 1 point above average with the addition of your team as I have not yet accounted for the loss of Afriquia) Unfortunately, in this game average is barely above relegation, and would be safe to say that chances in div 3 group 16 would be very very slim, chances of promotion would be nearly impossible, so I'd just round the 1 in 1280 to say 1 in 1000, and that's a bit generous to you again. Now, assuming for a second that you have as good of a chance as anyone of getting promoted in the other group, can't remember which one it is but it's somewhere in the 7-13 area, that'd be putting you at 1 in 4000. Assuming for one second that because many of the other division 2 teams will be much stronger, the standard 1 in 4 chance would again apply,(16000) but now the fact that, as the last randomization seems to have failed in balancing everything (nothing against the @'s, random numbers just didn't work this time), a randomization process could very well be used, (Probably 50-50) you have a 1 in 8 (128000) chance of getting put into an "Easy Group" in which your barely above average team in these groups could possibly win. (1 in 8 because there is a one in 4 chance of being put in the easiest of groups, and 1 in 2 of this system being used again.)



Yes, there is no solid basis for any of my conclusions, and obviously there is inaccuracies everywhere, the number could easily be half or double 128k, but the point is you making it to division 1 is very very very unlikely.